Disaster Probability Calendar -- 2012

Updates: Updates will be done on a regular basis of about every two weeks. However, there will be times, due to other pressing issues, when the update may take longer.

Last Update: February 21, 2012

January

1st -- First Quarter (6h 15m) MODERATE

Japan: The Izu Islands where rocked by a 6.8 magnitude earthquake (01/01; 05:27:55). Africa: Sudan: At least 50,000 people fled from violence in Jonglei; an unknown number were killed and wounded. Red Sea: An undersea eruption is forming a new island between the African and Arabian tectonic plates. Russia: Kizimen volcano on the Kamchatka Peninsula erupted. South Asia: New Delhi, Indian: Cyclone Thane brought strong winds and heavy rain to India's southeastern coast, killing at least 19 people, and destroying crops and houses. North America: US: Blinding snow caused mulitiple-vehicle crashes with a 20-vehilce crash near Falls Creek and a second involving more than two dozen in Clinton County, Pennsylvania, and a 30-vehilce pile-up in Cincinnati, Ohio. Solar Activity: A wave of ionization penetrated the upper atmosphere over Europe as sunspot AR1389 unleashed another M2-class, X-ray solar flare (12/31; ~13:20).

4th-5th -- Mid-Phase MODERATE

North America: US: Extreme cold affected the entire East Coast with freezing temperatures as far south as southern Florida, causing crop losses. Mexico: At least 31 inmates were killed and 13 were injured when a riot broke out in a northern Mexican prison. Africa: Libya: Two Misrata and Tripoli militias engaged in combat for nearly two hours in Tripoli, killing at least four. Europe: British Isles: A violent storm struck unleashing winds of 100 mph or more, toppling trees, overturning trucks and damaging buildings, as well as killing at least two (1/3-1/4). Italy: Mount Etna erupted spewing a column of hot ash high into the sky. South America: Brazil: Heavy rains collapsed a river dike, causing the evacuation of 4,000 people in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Heavy rains also spread across southern and central Brazil wrecking havoc in the state of Minas Gerais, killing 8 and causing the evacuation of 10,000 -- a state of emergency was issued for 71 towns. Southeast Asia: Philippines: Heavy rains and waterlogged soils unleashed a landslide that killed at least 25 people and left more than 100 missing. Mideast: Iraq: Bomb attacks targeting Shia Muslims left at least 72 people dead in southern Iraq and Baghdad. Solar Activity: The Sun's northern hemisphere erupted with a coronal mass ejection directed at Earth on the 5th.
Mideast: Syria: A suicide bomb targeted the Syrian army in Damascus, killing 24 people and injuring dozens (1/6).

9th -- Full Moon (7h 30m) MODERATE

North America: US: Torrential downpours and severe weather drenched the Houston area, while a tornado in Texas City, Texas. Wharton, Texas reported ping-pong ball-sized hail. Severe thunderstorms also moved through Louisiana causing flash flooding, tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and hail. Alaska's Cleveland volcano bellowed and spewed a cloud of ash. South Pacific: A 6.6 magnitude earthquake shook the Santa Cruz Islands (01/09; 04:07:17). Mideast: Syria: Government forces conducting raids and regime snipers killed at least 10 civilians, while clashes in the south between troops and defectors leave at least 11 soldiers dead. Southwest Indian Ocean: Moderate tropical storm Chanda heads for Madagascar.

12th-13th -- Mid-Phase MODERATE

Africa: Kenya: An al Qaeda-linked militant group, called Al-Shabaab, raided a police camp, killing seven and taking others prisoner. Mideast: Iraq: At least 20 people were wounded, some critically, when two car bombs exploded in Kirkuk. Yemen: Government forces open fired with bullets and tear gas on protesters in the city of Aden, killing at least four. North America: US: Parts of the Northeast were blanketed with near blizzard snowfall and high winds, as heavy lake-effect snow covered the region around the Great Lakes. Solar Activity: An eruption took place on the farside of the Sun producing a C3-class X-ray flare.

16th -- Last Quarter (9h 8m) MODERATE

Asia: Pakistan: A bomb killed at least 14 people and injuried at least 20 in the town of Khan Pur. Indonesia: Volcanic mudflows rumbled down the slopes of Gamalama volcano causing thousands of people flee their homes after. Mideast: Syria: Government forces killed at least 13 and wounded at least 20 in Zabadani. Antarctica: The South Shetland Islands were rattled by 6.6 (01/15; 13:40:18) and 6.2 (01/15; 14:21:32) magnitude earthquakes. Solar Activity: Sunspot complex 1401-1402 erupted producing a C6-class solar flare and a coronal mass ejection.

19th-20th -- Mid-Phase LOW

North America: US: An extremely rare tornado touched down in Louisville, Kentucky. The coast of Oregon was whipped with winds as high as 110 mph (177 kph) (1/18-1/19). Seattle, Washington and surrounding areas were covered by heavy snowfall afterwhich came freezing rain downing powerlines and creating havoc. Reno, Nevada is swept with strong winds up to 70 mph (113 kph) that fanned a wildfire that lead to the evacuation of 10,000 residents. Asia: Afganistan: Suicide bomber killed seven and injuried at least 11 near the Kabul airport. Heavy snow and snow slides killed at least 28 people and injuried at least 45, as well as killed about 600 cattle in the mountainous northeast. Africa: South Africa: The remnants of Tropical Depression Dando broke up inland flooding the famous and vast Kruger National Park, and dumping nearly 15 inches at Hoedspruit, and about 11 inches at Skukuza. Nigeria: A series of at least six explosions, targeting different locations across the city of Kano killed at least seven, and at least 200 people have been killed in violence between Christians and Muslims in the city of Jos. Mideast: Syria: Reports indicated that government troops shelled Zabadani, a town near the border with Lebanon. Solar Activity: Active sunspot 1401 erupted producing an M3-class solar flare and a coronal mass ejection that headed toward Earth, producing a geomagnetic storm.

23rd -- New Moon (7h 39m) LOW

North America: US: A supercell thunderstorm produced tornadoes along its path across portions of Alabama, where the EF3-tornado had winds up to 140 mph (225 kph) that destroyed buildings, campers and more. A total of 12 tornadoes were noted in surrounding states, as well as, 26 severe thunderstorms. South America: Chile: A 6.2 magnitude earthquake hit Bio-Bio (01/23; 16:04:54). South Pacific: A 6.3 magnitude earthquake hit south of the Fiji Islands (01/24; 00:52:06). Ecuador: Reventador volcano ejected thick clouds of gas and steam as its lava dome grew. Africa: Mozambique: Drenched by two tropical storms, including Tropical Cyclone Funso with winds of 132 mph (213 kph), the nation was affected with severe flooding and damage. The slow-moving cyclone is forecast to strengthen in the following days causing further damage and flooding, also affecting Madagascar. Mideast: Iraq: Five attacks took place in mostly Shiite neighborhoods in Baghdad, killing at least nine and injuring at least 72. Solar Activity: Large sunspot 1402 erupted, producing a long-duration M9-class solar flare, making it nearly an X-flare, the most powerful kind of solar flare. It is the largest solar storm since 2005, and it triggered auroras as far south as Scotland and northern England, while disrupting GPS and other communications.

26th-27th -- Mid-Phase LOW

Mideast: Iraq: New bomb attacks in a city near Baghdad and the city of Kirkuk killed at least 37 and wounded at least 21. Syria: Government forces killed at least 60 and wounded dozens more in and around Damascus. Bahrain: Four people were killed during anti-government demonstrations. South America: Brazil: The collapse of a 20-story building and adjacent 10- and 4-story buildings in Rio de Janeiro killed at least 13; it is not known what caused the collapse. Solar Activity: Sunspot 1402 was again active on the 26th with a sequence of C-class magnetic eruptions that set off a bright coronal mass ejection over the Sun's north pole. On the 27th sunspot 1402 unleashed an X2-class solar flare and a coronal mass ejection that lead to a radiation storm near Earth.

30th-31st -- First Quarter (4h 10m) LOW

Africa: Nigeria: Islamist extremist group Boko Haram spreads violence across northern Nigeria. South America: Peru: A 6.3 magnitude earthquake (01/30; 05:11:01) shook the coastal region about 9 miles (15 km) southeast of Ica, injuring at least 119, and destroying or damaging homes. Mideast: Syria: Heavy fighting continued between Syrian forces and the rebel Free Syria Army in Damascus, killing at least five. More people were killed in other parts of Syria, including 22 in Homs, six in Daraa and one in Idlib, while there were also reports of violence in Rastan, Daraa, and other towns and cities across the country. Yemen: Air strikes hit militant targets in the south, killing nine. Europe: Severe cold gripped eastern and central Europe claiming at least 58 lives; the cold began in the 26th-27th Mid-Phase.

Feburary

3rd-4th -- Mid-Phase LOW

Asia: Phillipines: An airstrike on the island province of Sulu left 15 militants dead, including a terrorist on the US most wanted list. Europe: Countries from Italy to Ukraine continued to struggle with bitter cold and record-low temperatures with the death toll at about 150. Record snowfalls, and frozen lakes and rivers made this the worst freeze in decades. A rare snowfall even took place in Rome. US: A rare and historic storm system produced severe weather, heavy rain, and blizzard conditions over the Rockies and Plains states. Denver, Colorado had more than 15 inches of snow and winds up to 60 mph (97 kph). Alaskan scientists warn that the volcano, known as Mount Cleveland, showed signs that it could erupt. South Pacific: Vanuatu: A 6.0 and a 6.1 magnitude earthquakes rattled the island nation (02/03; 03:46:23 -- 02/05; 00:15:41). Mideast: Egypt: Protesters gathered outside the Interior Ministry in Cairo, protesting the failure of the police to prevent a soccer riot two days earlier that killed 74. Police set off teargas and fired birdshot, as the protest left one person dead in Cairo and two in Suez. Syria: Government troops unleashed mortars and artillery on the already battered city of Homs, killing more than 200. Australia: Heavy rains brought extensive flooding in the east in Moree, Queensland and New South Wales stranding thousands, while more flooding was expected. Africa: A rare snowfall took place in Algiers, the capital city of Algeria, as a cold air associated with a storm system moved into the region from the north allowing for significant accumulations of snow. Solar Activity: NOAA forecasters indicated a slight chance of geomagnetic activity around the Arctic Circle due to an incoming solar wind stream.

7th -- Full Moon (21h 54m) LOW

Australia: More than 2,000 residents fled the town of St. George as floodwaters submerged the town under more than 45 feet (about 14 m) of water. The town, part of Queensland, is protected by a levee that is only 47.5 feet (14.5 m) high, heightening concerns as more rain threatens to breach the levee. Flooding also took place in Roma, Mitchell and Charleville -- three towns near St. George -- danger of being hampered by more bad weather looms. Indian Ocean: Maldives: The president of the Maldives resigned after a revolt by police officers, leaving the normally peaceful islands in chaos. Mideast: Syria: Bombing of Homs continued with hundreds of people, regardless of age or gender, were reportedly killed. Six European and six Persian Gulf countries recalled their ambassadors from Syria, as the US closed its embassy, all in protest of the bloodshed. Solar Activity: Sunspot AR1410 grew in size and magnetic complexity while emitting solar flares, NOAA forecasters estimated a 30% chance of more M-flares over the next 24 hours.
Asia: Phillipines: A 6.7 (02/06; 03:49:17) and a 6.0 (02/06; 10:10:24) magnitude earthquakes shook the Visayas region, killing at least 48, while 92 people were missing. At least 11 aftershocks ranged from 4.8 to 5.8 magnitude, spreading out over the following three days.

10th-11th -- Mid-Phase LOW

Asia: Jakarta, Indonesia: The volcano at Mt. Lokon, in North Sulawesi, spewed clouds of ash as high as 1.25 miles (2 km), prompted a warning for resident to stay away and a 1.5 miles (2 km) exclusion zone. Europe: Twenty-two countries remained gripped by frigid temperatures and heavy snow with more than 100 perishing in the Ukraine alone and hundreds of deaths elsewhere. Parts of the Danube River were nearly frozen over, while more than 120 ships were trapped in the Kerch Strait, linking the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea, because of ice. Greece: More than 13,000 gathered in central Athens the Parliament building where protesters smashed pavements and began throwing stones, pieces of marble, and Molotov cocktails at the police, who responded with stun grenades and teargas. Mideast: Syria: Two explosions struck security compounds in Aleppo, killing 28 people and injuring 235. Shelling and gunfire throughout Baba Amr left at least four dead. Intense bombardment of many parts of Homs by government forces since February 4th has left more than 400 dead. Seven other cities in Syria were also attacked by government forces. Solar Activity: A bright coronal mass ejection (CME) was hurled away from the Sun heading for Venus. At the site of the CME there emerged a new sunspot and the existing sunspot AR1416 grew rapidly to four times its size.

14th -- Last Quarter (17h 04m) LOW

Mideast: Iran: A car bomb explosion in Mosul killed three and injuried 19, and gun violence killed one and injuried 9 in Baghdad. Bahrain: Police forced fan out in unprecedented numbers throughout the capital city of Manama, firing tear gas and making arrests as hundreds who tried to reach the Pearl Roundabout on the anniversary of pro-democracy protests. Syria: Government forces renewed their assault on Homs with the heavy shelling. Asia: Japan: A 6.0 magnitude earthquake struck near the east coast of Honshu (02/14; 06:21:58). Oceania: Solomon Islands: A 6.4 magnitude earthquake struck the central area of the islands (02/14; 08:19:58). North America: US: Mount Cleveland volcano in Alaska lava dome grew by 25% since last week, indicating the possibly that an eruption would occur in the near future. Asia: Russia: Kizimen volcano on Kamchatka Peninsula spewed hot lava from a crater on the summit, accompanied by rock avalanches and ash spews. Africa: Democratic Republic of the Congo: Nyamuragira volcano spewed lava 600 feet (200 m) into the sky. The volcano's twin, Nyiragongo in Virunga National Park near the city of Gomais also displayed a threat of an eruption. Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone Giovanna hit the island in the South Indian Ocean where it caused flooding, downed powerlines and trees, and killed four. Maximum sustained winds were 143 mph (230 kmph), equivalent to a category 4 hurricane.

17th-18th -- Mid-Phase LOW

Mideast: Syria: Government forces shelled and bombed the city of Hama, and also hit a gas pipeline in Hamas. A humanitarian crisis spread in regions that have been the target of government attacks, where now food and water are in short supply, and aid is unable to reach them. In Damascus a funeral with thousands of mourners turns into a demonstration and government forces fire on the crowd killing at least two on the 18th. Throughout Syria on the 18th government forces kill at least seventeen. Asia: Pakistan: An explosion in a market in a volatile tribal region bordering Afghanistan left 19 dead and 42 wounded. Africa: Sengal: Police clashed with demostrators who are sprayed with rubber bullets and tear gas. Solar Activity: The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (issuing off the Sun) near Earth dipped south, creating an opening Earth's magnetic defenses and allowed the solar wind to produce spectacular auroras.

21st -- New Moon (22h 35m) MODERATE

Mideast: Iraq: Two incidents of car bombs left nearly two dozen dead. Syria: Government forces shelled parts of Homs, again, including Baba Amr, killing at least 30, and another 33 are killed in the Jabal al-Zawiya region. Africa: Bitter cold and heavy snow hit northern Africa with the eastern Atlas Mountain region of northeastern Algeria into northwestern Tunisia hardest hit with snow piling up by the foot. Deep snow isolated villages forcing airdrops of supplies. This is a rare phenomenon, and seems to be the result of the bitter Arctic blast that was affecting Europe stretching further south into Africa. Senegal: Police and protesters again clashed as elections draw near, injuring at least three. Niger: Drought has led to crop failures threatening ten million with famine in the Sahel region. Southeast Asia: Java: Semeru volcano was beginning to show signs of a possible eruption, as increased earthquake activity, hot rock avalanches and plumes of ash occurred. North America: US: Alaska's Cleveland volcano was again showing activity. Solar Activity: The Moon passed in front of the Sun, producing a partial solar eclipse that could only be seen from space.

24th-25th -- Mid-Phase MODERATE

March

1st -- First Quarter (1h 21m) HIGH

4th-5th -- Mid-Phase HIGH

8th -- Full Moon (9h 39m) HIGH

11th-12th -- Mid-Phase HIGH

Note: Some events from mid-March to mid-April will occur off the lunar phase aspects of the calendar, and this period tends to be the most active time of the year.
These events will be noted in the calendar on the nearest lunar phase date, and the date of the event will be shown.

15th -- Last Quarter (1h 25m) MAXIMUM

18th-19th -- Mid-Phase MAXIMUM

Note: The Equinox is the 20th.

22nd -- New Moon (14h 37m) MAXIMUM

25th-26th -- Mid-Phase MAXIMUM

30th -- First Quarter (19h 41m) MAXIMUM

Click here for more advertisers.

Return to Home Page

Questions or comments?
e-mail: livingcosmos@hotmail.com

Privacy Policy