Understanding and Using the Disaster Probability Calendar

Objectives of the Disaster Probability Calendar

The objectives of the Disaster Probability Calendar is to demonstrate that disasters of all types can be somewhat predicitable with an understanding of the Field-dynamical Earth Model (FEM), and its solar and lunar linkages. This is a beginning point for a more accurate ability to predict specific events in the future. Accruracy will also increase when it is possible to have a calendar of the polarity shifts of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field, issuing off the Sun, which does not yet exist. Also, there are molecular clouds that the galaxy passes through at times, which can also affect the Earth, and there is no calendar for these events either. Other cycles can also have an influence, but they are very long cycles and no calendars yet exist. These are Earth's eccentricity and perihelion/aphelion cycles, and the precessions of the equator and equinoxes. The Lunar Nodal Cycle (18.6-year), involving extremes in the Moon's orbit, is noted in the calendar, as well as, eclipses, and can have an influence.

Note: This NOT astrology nor does it involve a strictly gravitational influence of the Moon. Rather, it involves magnetohydrodynamic effects (see comments under the section "LUNAR PHASES AND MID-PHASES").

Updates: Updates will be done on a regular basis on lunar phases and mid-phases. However, there will be times, due to other pressing issues, when the update may delay the update by a day.

HOW TO USE AND UNDERSTAND THIS CALENDAR:

PROBABILITY LEVELS

LOW: The probability is higher than those days not listed in the calendar, and lower than the other dates that are listed in the calendar without this designation.
MODERATE: The probability is higher than those days not listed and those dates with the "LOW" designation.
HIGH: The probability is higher than those days not listed and those dates with the "LOW" and "MODERATE" designations.
MAXIMUM: The probability is greater than all other dates.
Note: Times of High and Maximum probability levels there will often be events that do not fall within the dates shown. This is due to the fact that the solar-terrestrial linkage is more influential than the lunar phases during those times.

LUNAR PHASES AND MID-PHASES

The times noted for lunar phases come from U.S. Naval Observatory, Astronomical Applications Department. They are noted in parentheses as follows: h = hour and m = minute, and are based on a 24-hour clock. For example, on January 4th there is a New Moon that takes place on January 4th at 9:03 AM, and the effects continue until 9:02 AM on January 5th. Mid-Phases are the 24-hour period between phases (3 to 4 days before and after a lunar phase) and usually covers two calendar dates as noted on each calendar entry. Mid-Phases tend to be more active as there is a delay of three to four days following (and prior to) phases -- it is a magnetohydrodynamic wave phenomenon due to plasma torus, electrostatic repulsion and sheparding effects of the Moon. Imagine as if the Moon were a boat plowing through water, creating a wake of ripples. Only in the case of magnetohydrodynamics it is plasma (highly ionized atoms) and the Moon not only pushes "ripples" in a wake (bow shock and sheparding), but also electrically (plasma torus and electrostatic repulsion) pushes and drags the plasma. This in turn triggers tectonic plate movement (earthquakes), and ionizes the atmosphere (causing weather phenomena and civil unrest and war due to biometeorologic effects triggering violence). However, there are some local effects due to the gravitational effects of the Moon, but these are much less important.

Note: The lunar month, or synodic period as it is also called, is 29.531 days or 29 days 12 hours and 44 minutes.

GEOGRAPHIC CONSTRAINTS

Events are not limited to these geographic regions. Rather, this regions are more likely to experience events.

United States: Probable scenarios include heavy precipitation, especially along the East Coast and Southeast, but also the mid-section in the form of heavy snowfalls (ranging from late Fall to Early Spring) or heavy rains, frosts and very low temperatures. Tornadoes will increase, especially in the mid-section and Southeast, packing high winds and destructive force. Moderate to strong earthquakes could hit the West Coast, especially from San Francisco down through the Los Angeles basin. Strong winds (such as, the Santa Ana winds) and heavy rains may also affect the West Coast. Hurricanes are likely in those states along the East and Gulf Coasts. Droughts are likely in the southern states, interrupted by occasional heavy precipitation. Heat waves are likely, especially along the Eastern section, particulary the Southeast.
Mexico: Eastern Mexico is likely to experience heavy precipitation, flooding and hurricanes. Northcentral and Northwestern Mexico is likely to experience drought, interrupted by occasional heavy precipitation. Earthquakes are likely in central and western Mexico, and Baja.
Caribbean: The islands of the Caribbean are likely to experience hurricanes, heavy rains, and earthquakes.
Western Europe: Probable scenarios include unique weather events in Spain, Portugal, France, Beligum and the British Isles, ranging from heavy preciptation to droughts and thick fog or smog to cold and heat waves. Italy and Greece may be affected by volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. Civil unrest is also possible, particularly in Spain and Portugal.
Mideast (Asia): Those countries surrounding the Persian Gulf, such as Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Yemen and Oman are likely to have civil unrest and possibly war, as well as unique weather events. They are also prone to earthquakes, especially Iran and Iraq. Afghanistan and Pakistan are likely to have continued civil unrest and war, as well as heavy precipitation and flooding, as well as earthquakes.
Mideast (Africa): Egypt, Libya, Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia are likely to have civil unrest and war, as well as unique and servere weather events.
Northern Africa (excluding Mideast): Morroco, Algeria and Tunisia are likely to experience civil unrest and possibly war, as well as unique and servere weather events.
Southern Africa: South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Madagascar are likely to experience civil unrest and possibly war, as well as unique and servere weather events, including typhoons. Angola may be similarly affected by weather, but it is less likely.
Asia: Japan and east-central China are likely to experience heavy precipitation and typhoons, as well as earthquakes. China is prone to civil unrest in the form of protests and state suppression. Southern Asia, such as North and South Korea, India, Burma and Sri Lanka, and Indonesia and India will likely experience typhoons and flooding. Burma is also likley to have civil unrest.
South America: Brazil, and less so, Paraguay, Uraguay and northern Argentia, will likley experience heavy precipitation and some flooding. Western South America -- Equator, Chile and Peru -- is likely to experience earthquakes, and less so Argentina.
Australia: Southeastern and Northwestern Australia, and Tasmania are likely to experience heavy precipitation and flooding, and occasional major typhoons.
Circumpolar Regions: Fluctuations between warmer than usual temperatures and cold waves will likely occur, and volcanic eruptions are possible. Noctilucent -- "night-shining" -- Clouds will continue to grow more frequent. These regions include Arctic, Canada, Northern Russia, Siberia, Scandinavia, far southern South America and Antarctica.
NOTE ON WEATHER EVENTS: Weather events are more available for North America, especially the US, which has the most active weather in the world (except the circumpolar regions). Because there is no overall cyber source for regions outside of the US, those regions and countries will not be as represented as the US in this calendar. Moreover, the severe weathers events noted are the formation or sudden intensification of weather systems.

Other Factors

NOTE ON EARTHQUAKES: Only those earthquakes that cause major damage or are 6.0 and above in magnitude will be represented in the calendar, as there are numerous earthquakes that occur each day. For more information on these earthquakes see the USGS listings, which show the last 7 and 30 days of quake data. The listing of earthquakes was begun in this calendar starting in March -- January and February were not listed.
NOTE ON SOLAR ACTIVITY: Solar activity will be included in this calendar, as the solar-terrestrial linkage is involved in solar events, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CME)and so forth. Many of these solar events will effect the Earth environment, especially geomagnetic storms and the Northern and Southern Lights (auroras in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, also known as the Aurora Borealis and Aurora Australis).

The Disaster Probability Calendars